Scenarios help to understand changes and uncertainties in the operating environment and to prepare for alternative futures. Capful is one of the pioneers of scenario work and scenario-based strategy development.
In a world shaken by constant change, management must be able to quickly make the right judgement call in a new situation. How deep will be the impact of the change on us? Is our operating model viable in the new environment? How should we redirect our strategy? Are our investment plans still feasible? Traditional strategic planning offers very few tools to cope with uncertainty. But with the help of scenario analysis, dealing with uncertainty becomes a natural part of strategy development. Uncertainty is no longer seen as a problem, but rather as a source of opportunity.
- Helps organisations to be more sensitive to developments in a complex, uncertain and turbulent operating environment.
- Increases strategic flexibility by enhancing ability to react and adapt to changes in the external environment.
- Offers a systematic way of identifying discontinuities and changes in the external environment, and their effects on strategy and operations.
- Encourages rich and structured strategic conversations about alternative pathways to the future, challenges conventional wisdom, expands the organisation’s strategic horizon, and stimulates decision-makers’ strategic thinking.
- Creates a framework that enables effective and ongoing monitoring of changes in the operating environment with indicators that best reflect those changes